Creating predictions

Create predictions to anticipate business events and customer behavior, such as chances of successful case completion or probability of customer conversion. You can then increase the accuracy of your decisions by incorporating the predictions that you create in your decision strategies.

For example, you can create a prediction that calculates whether a customer is likely to accept an offer, and then add the prediction to a next-best-action strategy. The next-best-action strategy prepares several propositions for a customer, and then selects the one that the customer is most likely to accept.

  1. In the navigation pane of Prediction Studio, click Predictions.
  2. In the header of the Predictions work area, click New.
  3. In the New prediction window, specify the subject and objective of the prediction.
    For example: To predict whether a customer is likely to accept an offer, select the following settings:
    1. In the Subject of the prediction list, select Customer.
    2. In the The objective is to predict list, select Acceptance.
  4. Start the prediction wizard by clicking Start.
  5. In the Select data step, specify whether you want the prediction to learn from historical data:
    • If you want to create a prediction without historical data, select I do not have historical data.

      A prediction without historical data learns based on adaptive analytics.

    • If you want to create a prediction that learns from historical data, select I have historical data, and then select a data set that contains the historical data that you want to use.

      A prediction with historical data learns by combining adaptive analytics and historical data.

  6. Confirm your settings by clicking Next.
  7. In the Define outcomes step, specify the possible outcomes of the prediction by clicking the Properties icon.
    For example: To predict whether a customer is likely to accept an offer, specify the outcomes as follows:
    1. In the Predict the likelihood to field, enter Accept.
    2. In the With alternate outcome field, enter Reject.
  8. Confirm the outcomes and choice of historical data by clicking Next.
  9. In the Select predictors step, select the fields that you want to use as input for the prediction.
    To increase the accuracy of your prediction, select a wide range of fields to use as predictors. Do not include fields that are not suitable as predictors, for example, the Identifier and Date Time fields. For more information, see the Pega Community article Best practices for adaptive and predictive model predictors.
  10. Confirm your choice of predictors by clicking Next.
    When you create a prediction, Prediction Studio creates an adaptive model as the basis of the prediction. For more information, see Adaptive analytics.
  11. Optional: To change the name of the adaptive model, in the Review model step, click the Edit icon, and then enter a model name.
  12. Create the prediction by clicking Create.
  13. Review the prediction configuration, and then click Save.
  14. Optional: To review the adaptive model that is the basis of the prediction, in the Outcome definition tab, click Open model.
Result: The prediction is now available in the Predictions work area.
What to do next: Include the prediction in your application, for example, as part of a decision strategy.

For more information, see Defining a Prediction shape.